COP28 - Outcome Vs. Reality

Another COP, another compromise? Or are we seeing genuine movement?

DECEMBER 1: World Heads of State pose for a group photo at Al Wasl during the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 at Expo City Dubai on December 1, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (C) UNClimateChange, Flickr.

COP is over for another year, and while there were areas of success, there is a lot to unpack for this year’s Conference of the Parties (COP). The event marks a critical juncture in global efforts to address climate change. However, the choice of the UAE, one of the world's largest oil producers, as the host country and the appointment of Al Jabar, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, to lead the talks ignited intense criticism before the event had even begun, raising questions about the integrity of the commitment to a sustainable future. 

Ahead of talks, researchers at Climate Action Tracker warned that the world was on track for a 2.7°C temperature increase by 2100 - dangerously above the 1.5°C target agreed at COP21 for mitigating the most severe impacts of climate change. A U.N. report now highlights we could breach this 1.5 target in the next two decades, underscoring the urgent need for more decisive actions to align progress with the ambitious goals set in the Paris Agreement.

Below, we have highlighted some of the key outcomes (and their realities) of COP28.

Key Outcomes from COP28:

Loss and Damage Fund: 

Outcome: A positive development in the early stages of COP28 was the announcement that the "loss and damage" fund could begin distributing money. This fund, established at COP27, aims to address the impacts of climate change, with wealthier nations (those most responsible for the climate emergency) supporting countries in the Global South already experiencing the adverse effects of global warming and rising sea levels.

Reality: Countries primarily responsible for the climate crisis have committed just over $700 million (£556 million) to the loss and damage fund. This is equivalent to less than 0.2% of the irreversible economic and non-economic losses, with estimates for the cost of the damage from global warming varying from $100bn-$580bn annually.

(C) 2023 UNClimateChange, Flickr.

The Use of Fossil Fuels:

During a She Changes Climate event early in the conference, President Al Jaber stated, while in discussion with Mary Robinson, Chair of the Elders, that there was no science to back up that the phase-out of fossil fuels would keep temperatures below the 1.5C global warming level. Scientists across the world fiercely denied this claim and stated the comment was almost akin to climate denial. 

Outcome: World governments agreed to call on countries to reduce fossil fuels and reach net zero by 2050.

Reality: Although this agreement could be considered monumental, it has already been stated that it is far too weak to keep global warming to 1.5C. Not only that but for Pacific Island nations and many other island and low-lying coastal states for whom rising sea levels pose an existential threat, the final COP28 deal falls severely short. “We weren’t in the room when this decision was gavelled. And that is shocking to us,” Tina Stege, the climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, told the media after the decision. “We see a litany of loopholes,” the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) stated, reacting to the deal. “It does not deliver on a subsidy phaseout, and it does not advance us beyond the status quo.” 

The deal's language was also vague, with no accountable boundaries, meaning it would be easy for countries to shirk their responsibilities. The fact that "transitional fuels" such as gas and oil are written into the agreement is also a major concern.

“We watched first-hand as the fossil fuel polluters and wealthy governments manipulated developing countries to undermine real action on climate change … [while] our strong messages of fossil fuel phase-out fell on deaf ears and instead more false solutions will accelerate climate change and deforestation … The UN climate change conference has failed humanity and Mother Earth.”

Tom Goldtooth, the director of the Indigenous Environmental Network and a Cop veteran.

Mary Robinson at COP28, Dubai. (C) UNClimateChange, Flickr.

Indigenous Peoples and Climate Justice: 

A significant highlight of COP28 was the shift in considering Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPs and LCs) as crucial implementers of Nature-based solution projects rather than passive beneficiaries. Direct engagement with Indigenous communities to understand their perspectives and ensure free, prior, and informed consent emerged as a crucial aspect of the talks. Finance discussions, a central theme at COP28, included the Forest Tenure Funders Group's commitment to supporting IPs and LCs in tropical forest countries. Sonia Guajajara, the first Indigenous Peoples minister of Brazil, highlighted that Indigenous Peoples make up only 5% of the world’s population, but 82% of the world’s protected biodiversity is within indigenous territories, and that “It was the first time that we had Indigenous people participating directly in a dialogue with Brazilian negotiators”.

Reality: While progress has been made and Indigenous representation at COP has significantly increased for the better, fossil fuel lobbyists made up at least 2,450 of the delegates, outnumbering official Indigenous representatives (316) by a ratio of seven to one. Following the event, Indigenous and climate justice groups said Cop 28 was “unfair, inequitable and business as usual”, highlighting that the profits of wealthier nations, particularly those with large oil and gas reserves, were being prioritised over the wellbeing of the planet and frontline communities.

“These findings tell us that the dynamics within these spaces remain fundamentally colonial. Cops have become an avenue for these corporations to greenwash their polluting businesses and foist dangerous distractions from real climate action.”

Caroline Muturi, a coordinator at the campaign group Ibon Africa.

Great-Grandmother Mary Lyons speaks onstage during the People's Plenary by the COP28 Coalition and different constituencies at the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 at Expo City Dubai on December 11, 2023, in Dubai. (C) UNClimageChange, Flickr.

Carbon Markets and Nature-Based Solutions:

There was a focus on the importance of Nature-based solutions in achieving climate goals and an emphasis on accelerating the use of ecosystem-based adaptation. Proponents arguecarbon markets can be a useful tool for funding Nature-based solutions, supporting Indigenous communities, and transitioning away from fossil fuels. However, there are also genuine concerns about effectiveness, human rights abuses, the value of carbon credit schemes, and a lack of transparency in financial flows.

Outcome:  While talks on carbon markets broke down because of integrity concerns, COP28's final texts emphasise the commitment to protecting Nature and ecosystems as part of the Paris Agreement, stressing the need to stop deforestation, conserve marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and support these efforts financially and technologically.

Reality: Nature-based solutions are critical for addressing climate change yet remain massively under-invested. The measures coming out of COP28 do not go far enough to tackle the immediacy of the crisis, nor do they put the funding in the hands of those doing the most to protect our Earth. 

There is a pressing need for more transparency and integrity regarding net zero commitments and carbon offsetting programs. Instead of relying on offsetting, we need to prioritise reducing our carbon emissions. This monetisation of Nature and reliance on market-based carbon accounting does not add up to the long-term care of life or preservation of the environment. It may, in fact, exacerbate the damage already done to both people and ecosystems by using the same thinking that caused the problem in the first place.

“Even if we phase out all fossil fuels, if we do not get involved in nature, [the destruction of natural landscapes and habitats] can make us lose what we all have agreed on the safe future for humanity on Earth – that is, to stay within the 1.5C limit. It’s really decisive that we get it right on nature.”

Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, talking the Guardian.

Women’s Representation:

Lastly, in the 'family photo' above, 133 leaders were pictured at COP28 - just 15 were women, highlighting the missing voices of women in the climate conversation despite women and girls being disproportionately affected by climate change.

Evidence clearly shows that including women in all stages of climate action leads to better outcomes for all. Women have a unique relationship to the land, often holding essential knowledge and expertise vital to climate solutions.

We recognise women’s critical role in climate action and continue to advocate for women’s active involvement in decision-making for their lands and communities. Only through women's full, fair and equitable participation can climate justice be achieved.

Our planting partners in Uganda (C) International Tree Foundation & Alpha Women.

Climate change and taking better care of our world are urgent issues that require immediate action from all of us. COP28 may have left you disappointed, but we can still do many things to make a difference. By donating to TreeSisters, supporting and standing shoulder to shoulder with local and Indigenous groups, consuming less, and demanding companies do more for Nature, we can all play a part in protecting our planet. It's important to remember that every action we take, no matter how small, can have a positive impact. Join us as we work together to create a sustainable future for ourselves and future generations.

Be Part of the Solution.